It's crunch time for the ANC - and South Africa

On the 2024 South African election

In November 1992, I cast my first ballot in the all-white referendum on whether FW de Klerk should continue his negotiations to bring about a political settlement ending grand apartheid with the promise of a new dispensation. My friends (photo) and I all voted yes, along with 68% of South Africa's white population.

Less than two years later, in April 1994, I voted for a second time in South Africa's inaugural unitary elections, which the African National Congress won decisively with 62% of the vote on an impressive 87% turnout. (I also had the privilege of serving as an electoral officer at a voting station in Hammanskraal, north of Pretoria in that first election. The long queues and excitement will be something I will always remember. )

This week's vote, the sixth since 1994, marked the first time the ANC failed to secure an outright majority in South African elections—and by a significant margin. It barely garnered 40% of the vote on a turnout of only 59%.

Instead of celebrating the maturity of South African democracy in opting for change, the currency is dipping, markets are skittish, and commentators are worried. But are their concerns justified? Unfortunately, yes.

Although he is almost universally disliked, most of South Africa's chattering classes concur with ANC minerals and energy minister Gwede Mantashe that the ANC's ultimate downfall is due to "Zulu tribalism." He was alluding to ex-president Jacob Zuma's newly formed Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party, which had taken the polls by storm, particularly in South Africa's most populous province, KwaZulu-Natal, the traditional homeland of the Zulus.

Sidenote: Despite their unprecedented performance, the MK party is disputing the election outcome at the time I’ve written this, without offering any evidence as to why, or following established complaints procedures. The dispute is most likely hogwash. The elections tracked opinion polling to a remarkable degree. Zuma has shown time and again that he is willing to damage the country for his own gain.

In spite of this, ethnic allegiances are not the main problem. Though trending in that direction, South Africa is still far from being like Kenya, where ethnic voting dominates above all else. Neither the two biggest parties nor the fourth biggest can be said to represent one ethnic group.

Let me then explain what is likely to be the main worry. Because of the size of their loss, the ANC will have to have to choose one of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), MK or Democratic Alliance (DA) to form a government.

The main concern, besides MK’s irresponsible posturing and rather than ethnic voting, is the stated preferences of parties like the EFF and MK, who would like to abolish the constitution and redistribute land and wealth in ways that would not only massively damage the economy but also most certainly lead to serious conflict. Based on past behaviour, there is also ample reason to believe wealth would not reach most needy people but line the pockets of a small elite.

Yes, South Africa is desperately unequal, and in some ways more so than in 1994. But the constitution already allows for land to be redistributed in an orderly manner, and with some legitimacy. That it has not happened faster has as much to do with government incompetence and startling lack of political will as anything else.

A more equitable South Africa would require far more than a flash of rash land distribution. It would also require simply fixing some basics: a far better education system, rebuilding the energy and transport systems and infrastructure, and rejuvenated policing.

Yes, fixing these systemic issues would require more money and time, which would be increasingly difficult to marshal in a shrinking economy with rising debt levels, even if the currency did not take a nosedive. South Africa is dependent on imports of many high-end capital goods from outside to keep its economy ticking over, and in spite of abundant sun and wind, this includes oil. So, what outsiders think about what goes on inside South Africa matters to prices inside South Africa.

But even money and time are not enough. Fixing South Africa requires a sweeping cultural change in how the country is governed and managed, a shift towards sacrifice instead of graft, and that extends to the culture and skills of its civil service. And all of these factors point to the need for one coalition partner.

Although the arrogance and posturing of the current leadership of the cosmopolitan but very much white-led DA make them hard to stomach, securing them as the ANC's coalition partners and giving them key ministries like energy is the only way I foresee to stem South Africa's decline. They are the only party that can mobilise the institutional and cultural capital, knowledge, and skills at scale to start fixing some of the country's worst ills.

But are they not dyed-in-the-wool neoliberals? Does South Africa not need investment, while the DA believes in austerity? Yes, some in the party still do. But the global mood has swung so decisively against austerity and in favour of industrial policy that the DA cannot help but be impacted by that shift. And look at what the DA does, not what it says. The roads and infrastructure in the Western Cape, which they govern, are better maintained than those in parts of the United Kingdom.

Will the ANC choose the DA? If I were a betting person, I would not put money on it. Part of the problem is that so many vested interests benefit from corruption in the current regime. The changes needed to fix the economy would stop these people from eating.

And I doubt the maturity and wisdom inside the DA in making smart concessions to make it easier for the ANC to sell such a deal to their constituency. Everywhere, I see political pigmies and no statesmen. South African politics does not have a Rassie Erasmus or a Nelson Mandela.

What is more likely to happen? At best, the ANC forms a minority government, and it is unable to pass any new legislation through parliament while facing numerous votes of no confidence. The government is even more of a lame duck than before, and economic decline accelerates as the country lurches on. At worst, the ANC chooses the EFF or MK as a partner. The currency tanks. The economy goes into an even steeper downward spiral. Who knows what would happen next?